By 2055, this number is projected to rise to between 6.5 and 7.6 million, depending on the scenario. As a result, demand for age-appropriate housing and professional care facilities will continue to grow steadily.
At the same time, supply remains limited. The development of modern senior living and care properties is failing to keep pace with increasing demand. The consequences are already becoming apparent. Studies estimate that by 2040, Germany could face a shortage of more than 168,000 nursing home beds. Over the longer term, total demand is expected to reach approximately 1.3 million residential care places—around 500,000 more than are available today.
Closing this gap will require substantial investment. According to the RWI Leibniz Institute for Economic Research, more than €35 billion will be needed to finance new care facilities by 2040—excluding the additional capital required to modernize existing properties.
For investors, these market dynamics create a compelling opportunity. Senior living is one of the few real estate sectors driven not by short-term economic cycles, but by long-term demographic trends. High occupancy rates and long-term operator agreements are making healthcare and social infrastructure assets an increasingly important component of institutional real estate portfolios. At the same time, investments in senior living align strongly with key ESG principles by combining resilient financial performance with measurable social impact.
The shortage of senior housing and care facilities represents one of the greatest challenges of our time—and at the same time one of the most attractive investment opportunities in the German real estate market. Investing in social infrastructure today means investing in a sector characterized by sustained long-term demand, significant societal relevance, and enduring value creation.
